Ballistician Paul Bradley explains how component shortages, rising material and logistics costs, and constrained propellant supplies are driving prices up for sporting shooters and why reloaders should consider buying ahead.
We have seen some very concerning escalation in recent weeks regards global conflict. We have the ongoing war in Ukraine which shows no sign of stopping. Russia have also begun “probing” NATO countries via airspace incursion, hacking and denial of service (drones above Airports in Denmark being an example). Although Russia would strongly deny these claims, a betting man would likely give them pretty strong odds. Even if they were not Russia, they appeared to be and that is the factor which will drive future fears or wider kinetic conflict.
We also have problems in multiple other areas – Israel/Iran, America/China (with Taiwan in the middle) and proxy threats coming from places like Venezuela (funded and aided by Russia). All of this paints a rather concerning picture and it may be that worrying about your sports shooting seems a trifle in comparison to WW3… However, some of us will continue to enjoy our leisure activities despite the doom laden environment, me being one of them. So, what does all this mean in terms of ammunition and component availability and price? I will attempt to make some predictions…
It doesn’t require all out kinetic warfare to effect ammunition supply lines, only the threat of it. This is already happening. NATO countries are increasing defence spending in all areas including small arms ammunition. Most of them are running way below ideal strategic stock levels. This is due to low budgets in previous years and gifting much of the old stock to Ukraine.
Many factories that produce sporting ammunition also produce for the defence sector. In the last couple of years, the European sporting markets growth has stagnated somewhat regards ammunition sales. This certainly hasn’t been helped by the U.S. Tariff situation which has effectively shut the door to one of the worlds biggest consumers. We are beginning to see a trend where manufacturers are strategically moving production to defence products as the sector has less risk for them. Nobody wants to produce product and have it sat on a shelf for 12 months.
We also continue to see component supply issues and high material prices. When the threat of war occurs, material prices rise. Both Copper and Brass prices are increasing globally, although they are yet to hit Covid levels. The cost of plastic components from China also remains high (many of the wads are made there) as does the logistics cost to move these items around. So there are no signs that ammunition prices will drop anytime soon. Ammunition, especially shotgun cartridges, are high volume, low margin items. Many consumers imagine the manufacturers are simply greedy and could reduce prices if they wished. In my experience this is just wishful thinking. Some of the cartridge manufacturers are scraping by on very small margins, they are not about to sell below cost price!
Lastly, we will see bottlenecks. Prime manufacturers will be busy making primers for much bigger guns! The small caliber products that are produced will likely be marked for defence sector first. Us sporting guys will be the last in line. I am already seeing disruption in this areas as manufacturers use different or cheaper primers. I have had more than a few pierced primers in the last months!
Propellant is maybe an even worse story. Buying propellant in significant volume is currently almost impossible. If you didn’t get in line and pre-pay for 26 and 27 then you will be hunting for the scraps that do appear. Often this is older stored propellant which may suffer somewhat performance wise. The Chinese are still withholding cotton (used to make nitrocellulose propellant) and we simply do not have enough propellant plants in Europe to fulfil all needs. The risk and cost of building such a plant has become high as there are obvious health and safety issues involved. The solution is to build such plants far away from populated areas. Then the issue becomes finding skilled staff to work in them.
Currently we have been a little lucky. Prices have stayed stable as American products can still be imported and they have inventory. This is due to a slump in the U.S sporting market. They had a period where consumers bought anything they could get their hands on due to political concerns. Now Trump is in power there is no rush for consumers to stockpile, he is unlikely to be banning or legislating anything firearm related. That would alienate most of his voters. However that will change if America gets really serious about going to war or if they begin to experience serious civil unrest, the panic purchase market will return.
My prediction for 2026 is that small arms ammunition prices will rise in all sectors. Unfortunately, I think the largest increases will be in the sporting market as manufacturers set aside capacity for the defence sector. Lack of available product always increases price. If you are a reloader, I would suggest you buy product while you still can and in larger quantities that usual. For purchasers of factory ammunition, most will be constrained by the number they are allowed to hold. Many will simply be constrained by budget or an angry partner who does not see the wisdom in bulk buying sporting products!
